Iliana Iotova holds a near-certain position in the first-round winner market following the October 25 presidential election, where official tallies with 99.94% of protocols processed placed her ahead at 34.76% against Andrey Gyurov’s 31.94% and a fragmented field of 27 candidates. Low turnout near 22% triggered the two-round system, advancing the top two to the November 1 runoff without an outright majority. Iotova’s edge stems from her incumbency as acting president since January and backing from the ruling Progressive Bulgaria coalition, which consolidated support in a polarized contest. Traders price this outcome at 99.8% based on the completed parallel counts and Central Election Commission data. A reversal would require unprecedented late adjustments or legal challenges to the final protocols, though neither appears likely at this stage.