Hawi Feysa’s position as defending 2025 champion, combined with her strong recent major-marathon form and course-specific success, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus reflected in the 99.1% implied probability. The Ethiopian has delivered consistent podium results across World Marathon Majors events, including a personal-best victory in Chicago last year, while key rivals such as Sharon Lokedi and Brigid Kosgei entered with solid credentials but less recent dominance on this flat, fast course. Pre-race factors including the deep but experienced field, humid conditions that can reward tactical pacing and finishing strength, and Feysa’s proven late-race acceleration reinforced market pricing. Potential shifts remain possible from late injuries, withdrawals, or an unexpected surge by contenders like Lokedi in her Chicago debut or Kosgei drawing on prior titles, though such outcomes have been rare given Feysa’s established edge.