Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that Ebola will not reach pandemic status in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically limited to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, official counts show roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and 2,184 deaths, with the last reported case in June and Uganda declaring the outbreak over in July. Containment reflects rapid contact tracing, isolation protocols, and border measures coordinated by WHO and national authorities, consistent with Ebola’s typical transmission dynamics that require direct contact rather than airborne spread. Historical precedents of contained Ebola outbreaks further support the consensus. A realistic shift toward higher pandemic risk would require sustained cross-continental exportation, significant viral adaptation increasing transmissibility, or major lapses in surveillance allowing undetected chains of infection.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% шанс
$691,757 Обс.
$691,757 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
4% шанс
$691,757 Обс.
$691,757 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that Ebola will not reach pandemic status in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically limited to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, official counts show roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and 2,184 deaths, with the last reported case in June and Uganda declaring the outbreak over in July. Containment reflects rapid contact tracing, isolation protocols, and border measures coordinated by WHO and national authorities, consistent with Ebola’s typical transmission dynamics that require direct contact rather than airborne spread. Historical precedents of contained Ebola outbreaks further support the consensus. A realistic shift toward higher pandemic risk would require sustained cross-continental exportation, significant viral adaptation increasing transmissibility, or major lapses in surveillance allowing undetected chains of infection.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$691,757Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that Ebola will not reach pandemic status in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically limited to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, official counts show roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and 2,184 deaths, with the last reported case in June and Uganda declaring the outbreak over in July. Containment reflects rapid contact tracing, isolation protocols, and border measures coordinated by WHO and national authorities, consistent with Ebola’s typical transmission dynamics that require direct contact rather than airborne spread. Historical precedents of contained Ebola outbreaks further support the consensus. A realistic shift toward higher pandemic risk would require sustained cross-continental exportation, significant viral adaptation increasing transmissibility, or major lapses in surveillance allowing undetected chains of infection.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$691,757Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.3% implied probability that Ebola will not reach pandemic status in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remains geographically limited to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. As of mid-August, official counts show roughly 4,665 confirmed cases and 2,184 deaths, with the last reported case in June and Uganda declaring the outbreak over in July. Containment reflects rapid contact tracing, isolation protocols, and border measures coordinated by WHO and national authorities, consistent with Ebola’s typical transmission dynamics that require direct contact rather than airborne spread. Historical precedents of contained Ebola outbreaks further support the consensus. A realistic shift toward higher pandemic risk would require sustained cross-continental exportation, significant viral adaptation increasing transmissibility, or major lapses in surveillance allowing undetected chains of infection.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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