Israel’s strong projected performance in the May 12 first semi-final has driven trader consensus toward a 54% implied probability, fueled by models forecasting the highest total points and a dominant televote share for Noam Bettan’s entry “Michelle.” Finland sits at 32.5% on the back of its own robust jury backing and status as a pre-contest favorite with Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen’s high-energy “Liekinheitin.” Moldova, Croatia, and Greece trail at single-digit odds after solid but less dominant showings, while the remaining qualifiers face steeper historical barriers to claiming the semi crown. Full official rankings remain undisclosed, leaving room for late shifts based on any newly released voting data ahead of the grand final.