France's elite squad depth and consistent high-level performances in major tournaments have established them as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for topping Group I, with an implied probability of 70.5%. Recent squad announcements highlight their attacking options including Mbappé and supporting stars, reinforcing expectations of control in fixtures against Senegal and Norway. Norway's 21.5% positioning stems from Erling Haaland's influence and strong recent qualifying form, positioning them as the primary challenger for second place. Senegal at 8.5% reflects solid African Cup pedigree tempered by internal squad adjustments, while Iraq's 0.9% aligns with their limited international experience against this level of opposition. Key injury updates or early match results could still shift outcomes in this tightly scheduled group.