Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$456,032 Обс.
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
18%
5.5%
11%
6.0%
12%
7.0%
6%
10.0%
2%
$456,032 Обс.
5.0%
$117,701 Обс.
18%
5.5%
$195,458 Обс.
11%
6.0%
$71,207 Обс.
12%
7.0%
$28,974 Обс.
6%
10.0%
$42,693 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$456,032Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Обсяг
$456,032Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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