Above-average Western North Pacific activity has already produced seven tropical cyclone landfalls in China by early September 2026, exceeding the long-term average of roughly five, with multiple July and August systems such as Bavi, Noul, and Saudel contributing amid warmer sea-surface temperatures and favorable genesis conditions. National Climate Center outlooks anticipated 7–9 total impacts for the year, consistent with trader-implied probabilities clustering around 7–9 outcomes. Differentiation among these hinges on steering patterns influenced by evolving El Niño conditions, which can favor northwestward tracks toward East Asia, alongside remaining September–October formation rates and model consensus on recurvature or dissipation. Peak-season potential through early autumn and any late-year systems will determine whether totals exceed or fall short of current market positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
8 39%
Greater than 8 33%
7 23.1%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$58,457 Обс.
$58,457 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
27%
8
39%
Greater than 8
33%
8 39%
Greater than 8 33%
7 23.1%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$58,457 Обс.
$58,457 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$2,089 Обс.
<1%
5
$5,253 Обс.
<1%
6
$3,892 Обс.
<1%
7
$7,020 Обс.
27%
8
$13,350 Обс.
39%
Greater than 8
$26,855 Обс.
33%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific activity has already produced seven tropical cyclone landfalls in China by early September 2026, exceeding the long-term average of roughly five, with multiple July and August systems such as Bavi, Noul, and Saudel contributing amid warmer sea-surface temperatures and favorable genesis conditions. National Climate Center outlooks anticipated 7–9 total impacts for the year, consistent with trader-implied probabilities clustering around 7–9 outcomes. Differentiation among these hinges on steering patterns influenced by evolving El Niño conditions, which can favor northwestward tracks toward East Asia, alongside remaining September–October formation rates and model consensus on recurvature or dissipation. Peak-season potential through early autumn and any late-year systems will determine whether totals exceed or fall short of current market positioning.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$58,457Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific activity has already produced seven tropical cyclone landfalls in China by early September 2026, exceeding the long-term average of roughly five, with multiple July and August systems such as Bavi, Noul, and Saudel contributing amid warmer sea-surface temperatures and favorable genesis conditions. National Climate Center outlooks anticipated 7–9 total impacts for the year, consistent with trader-implied probabilities clustering around 7–9 outcomes. Differentiation among these hinges on steering patterns influenced by evolving El Niño conditions, which can favor northwestward tracks toward East Asia, alongside remaining September–October formation rates and model consensus on recurvature or dissipation. Peak-season potential through early autumn and any late-year systems will determine whether totals exceed or fall short of current market positioning.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Обсяг
$58,457Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Above-average Western North Pacific activity has already produced seven tropical cyclone landfalls in China by early September 2026, exceeding the long-term average of roughly five, with multiple July and August systems such as Bavi, Noul, and Saudel contributing amid warmer sea-surface temperatures and favorable genesis conditions. National Climate Center outlooks anticipated 7–9 total impacts for the year, consistent with trader-implied probabilities clustering around 7–9 outcomes. Differentiation among these hinges on steering patterns influenced by evolving El Niño conditions, which can favor northwestward tracks toward East Asia, alongside remaining September–October formation rates and model consensus on recurvature or dissipation. Peak-season potential through early autumn and any late-year systems will determine whether totals exceed or fall short of current market positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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