The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$13,698,530 Обс.
May 31, 2026
31 травня
7%
30 червня
13%
31 грудня
34%
$13,698,530 Обс.
31 травня
$2,005,144 Обс.
7%
30 червня
$1,099,136 Обс.
13%
31 грудня
$2,398,370 Обс.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,698,530Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$13,698,530Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання