The exceptionally high 93.7% market-implied probability for no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining timeframe of roughly four months and the low short-term odds derived from USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Recurrence intervals for M6.5+ events on the southern San Andreas and nearby faults typically span 100–300 years, with the last comparable shock being the 1994 Northridge event; current small-magnitude swarms and background seismicity have not escalated into foreshock sequences. Elevated tectonic stress accumulation noted in recent studies does not translate to near-term rupture probability. A sudden multi-fault rupture or model revision incorporating new strain data could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
6% шанс
$16,533 Обс.
$16,533 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
6% шанс
$16,533 Обс.
$16,533 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The exceptionally high 93.7% market-implied probability for no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining timeframe of roughly four months and the low short-term odds derived from USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Recurrence intervals for M6.5+ events on the southern San Andreas and nearby faults typically span 100–300 years, with the last comparable shock being the 1994 Northridge event; current small-magnitude swarms and background seismicity have not escalated into foreshock sequences. Elevated tectonic stress accumulation noted in recent studies does not translate to near-term rupture probability. A sudden multi-fault rupture or model revision incorporating new strain data could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$16,533Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The exceptionally high 93.7% market-implied probability for no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining timeframe of roughly four months and the low short-term odds derived from USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Recurrence intervals for M6.5+ events on the southern San Andreas and nearby faults typically span 100–300 years, with the last comparable shock being the 1994 Northridge event; current small-magnitude swarms and background seismicity have not escalated into foreshock sequences. Elevated tectonic stress accumulation noted in recent studies does not translate to near-term rupture probability. A sudden multi-fault rupture or model revision incorporating new strain data could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Обсяг
$16,533Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The exceptionally high 93.7% market-implied probability for no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining timeframe of roughly four months and the low short-term odds derived from USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models. Recurrence intervals for M6.5+ events on the southern San Andreas and nearby faults typically span 100–300 years, with the last comparable shock being the 1994 Northridge event; current small-magnitude swarms and background seismicity have not escalated into foreshock sequences. Elevated tectonic stress accumulation noted in recent studies does not translate to near-term rupture probability. A sudden multi-fault rupture or model revision incorporating new strain data could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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