Giorgia Meloni’s center-right coalition holds a stable majority in Italy’s parliament with no scheduled elections or confidence votes before June 30, supporting the strong trader consensus that she will remain prime minister. After the March 2026 referendum defeat on judicial reform, Meloni publicly committed to completing her mandate through 2027 and has since emphasized Italy’s relative political stability compared with neighboring countries. Recent cabinet adjustments and ongoing legislative work show no signs of imminent collapse. The only realistic paths to an early exit would involve an unforeseen health event, a sudden major scandal fracturing coalition support, or an abrupt procedural crisis in parliament, none of which currently show signs of materializing within the short window.