Recent official monitoring shows no qualifying catastrophic events, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, through mid-August 2026. A 7.4-magnitude quake struck Colombia in early August without meeting resolution thresholds, while Atlantic hurricane outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal activity due to developing El Niño conditions that typically suppress storm formation. Ongoing droughts, heat waves, and smaller floods or quakes align with historical baselines rather than tipping into unprecedented extremes. Model consensus and absence of rapid escalations in seismic or eruptive activity support traders' 79.5% implied probability on "No."
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% шанс
$240,662 Обс.
$240,662 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
21% шанс
$240,662 Обс.
$240,662 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent official monitoring shows no qualifying catastrophic events, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, through mid-August 2026. A 7.4-magnitude quake struck Colombia in early August without meeting resolution thresholds, while Atlantic hurricane outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal activity due to developing El Niño conditions that typically suppress storm formation. Ongoing droughts, heat waves, and smaller floods or quakes align with historical baselines rather than tipping into unprecedented extremes. Model consensus and absence of rapid escalations in seismic or eruptive activity support traders' 79.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$240,662Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent official monitoring shows no qualifying catastrophic events, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, through mid-August 2026. A 7.4-magnitude quake struck Colombia in early August without meeting resolution thresholds, while Atlantic hurricane outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal activity due to developing El Niño conditions that typically suppress storm formation. Ongoing droughts, heat waves, and smaller floods or quakes align with historical baselines rather than tipping into unprecedented extremes. Model consensus and absence of rapid escalations in seismic or eruptive activity support traders' 79.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$240,662Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent official monitoring shows no qualifying catastrophic events, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, through mid-August 2026. A 7.4-magnitude quake struck Colombia in early August without meeting resolution thresholds, while Atlantic hurricane outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project below-normal activity due to developing El Niño conditions that typically suppress storm formation. Ongoing droughts, heat waves, and smaller floods or quakes align with historical baselines rather than tipping into unprecedented extremes. Model consensus and absence of rapid escalations in seismic or eruptive activity support traders' 79.5% implied probability on "No."
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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