Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% шанс
$240,662 Обс.
$240,662 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
21% шанс
$240,662 Обс.
$240,662 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$240,662Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$240,662Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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