**The Black Ball** leads trader sentiment for the 2027 Oscars Best International Feature Film at 76.5% implied probability, driven by its selection as Spain’s official submission following a strong Cannes Competition premiere where directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi shared the Best Director prize. Netflix is mounting an extensive awards campaign for the queer historical epic, which has earned widespread critical praise and audience awards at Toronto and San Sebastián. Other entries such as Possible Love (South Korea), All of a Sudden (Japan), and Minotaur (France) sit at far lower odds, reflecting more modest early positioning ahead of the Academy’s December 15 shortlist announcement and January 21 nominations. Historical patterns favor films with major studio backing and festival momentum in this category, though late reviews and guild support could still shift outcomes.