The NFL's decision under its CBA to forgo a supplemental draft in 2026 stems from league discretion exercised after Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s application, with no other eligible college players seeking entry this offseason. The mechanism, last used in 2023, serves as a summer option for prospects missing the regular April draft due to eligibility issues or timing, but the league cited a lack of qualifying candidates and a pattern of skipping the event in recent years. This creates balance in trader sentiment around the 51% threshold for "No," reflecting the possibility of late roster needs, injuries, or unexpected eligibility shifts prompting reconsideration before the typical July window closes. Confirmed roster stability across teams or additional applications could shift probabilities toward a draft, while sustained absence of prospects reinforces the current consensus.