Persistent maximalist demands from Russia on territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality excluding NATO membership, and security arrangements continue to block any comprehensive ceasefire or peace agreement by year-end. Recent trilateral technical talks in the UAE have produced no breakthroughs, with Moscow rejecting pauses in hostilities and Kyiv dismissing withdrawal requirements from occupied regions like Donbas and Zaporizhzhia. Ongoing long-range strikes and frontline operations underscore the absence of de-escalation momentum. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions and stalled diplomacy. A sudden shift in battlefield dynamics, major U.S.-brokered concessions on neutrality guarantees, or reciprocal energy infrastructure truces could still open pathways to the required conditions.