The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to Cook County and Connecticut assault-weapons bans supplies the main catalyst for the modest 56% trader consensus favoring invalidation. A 6-3 conservative majority, combined with four justices who previously flagged AR-15 restrictions as questionable after the 2025 Maryland denial, tilts expectations toward applying the Bruen historical-tradition test and common-use analysis from Heller. Arguments expected this fall could resolve whether semiautomatic rifles in widespread civilian ownership qualify as protected arms or fall outside Second Amendment coverage as dangerous and unusual. Pending lower-court stays in states such as Virginia and Illinois underscore how the eventual ruling will shape enforcement nationwide, yet the precise scope of any decision remains uncertain enough to keep probabilities near even.