Recent reports from U.S. officials indicate that the Justice Department is preparing federal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, tied to the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft operated by Cuban exiles, which resulted in four deaths. Multiple sources confirm plans to unseal an indictment in Miami as early as next week, aligning with the Trump administration's efforts to escalate diplomatic and legal pressure on Cuba's communist government. This development, including related discussions of a grand jury process and historical case details, has shaped trader sentiment, producing a 60 percent implied probability for charges being filed. Analysts note that while approval remains subject to standard legal steps, the timing reflects broader U.S. policy priorities toward the island nation.