The US Justice Department is actively preparing an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, 94, tied to his alleged role as defense minister in the 1996 downing of two civilian planes operated by the Brothers to the Rescue exile group, which killed four people. Recent statements from department officials indicate the charges, focused on that decades-old incident, could be unsealed in Miami as soon as May 20, aligning with broader Trump administration efforts to increase pressure on Cuba’s government. While the move requires grand jury approval and remains subject to final legal steps, the advancing preparation and public timing have shaped trader views, producing a moderate lead for the affirmative outcome amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.