Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by early-onset drought, reduced Alpine snowmelt, and repeated heatwaves through summer 2026, have kept key gauges such as Kaub and Maxau well below historical averages. Official readings as of early September confirm ongoing restrictions on barge drafts and shipping capacity, with disruption odds remaining elevated for the month. The near-even split between September 15–30 and October 1–31 probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing of meaningful recovery, which hinges on sufficient rainfall or cooler conditions in the upper basin over the next several weeks. Traders appear to view a pre-September 15 rebound as unlikely given current hydrology, while the chance of no return before November captures tail risks from extended dry patterns. Scheduled seasonal shifts in precipitation could still alter the trajectory within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
September 15 - 30, 2026 50%
October 1 - 31, 2026 45%
No return before November 1, 2026 36%
Before September 15, 2026 3.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
4%
September 15 - 30, 2026
50%
October 1 - 31, 2026
45%
No return before November 1, 2026
36%
September 15 - 30, 2026 50%
October 1 - 31, 2026 45%
No return before November 1, 2026 36%
Before September 15, 2026 3.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
$35 Обс.
4%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$0 Обс.
50%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$0 Обс.
45%
No return before November 1, 2026
$0 Обс.
36%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by early-onset drought, reduced Alpine snowmelt, and repeated heatwaves through summer 2026, have kept key gauges such as Kaub and Maxau well below historical averages. Official readings as of early September confirm ongoing restrictions on barge drafts and shipping capacity, with disruption odds remaining elevated for the month. The near-even split between September 15–30 and October 1–31 probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing of meaningful recovery, which hinges on sufficient rainfall or cooler conditions in the upper basin over the next several weeks. Traders appear to view a pre-September 15 rebound as unlikely given current hydrology, while the chance of no return before November captures tail risks from extended dry patterns. Scheduled seasonal shifts in precipitation could still alter the trajectory within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$35Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by early-onset drought, reduced Alpine snowmelt, and repeated heatwaves through summer 2026, have kept key gauges such as Kaub and Maxau well below historical averages. Official readings as of early September confirm ongoing restrictions on barge drafts and shipping capacity, with disruption odds remaining elevated for the month. The near-even split between September 15–30 and October 1–31 probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing of meaningful recovery, which hinges on sufficient rainfall or cooler conditions in the upper basin over the next several weeks. Traders appear to view a pre-September 15 rebound as unlikely given current hydrology, while the chance of no return before November captures tail risks from extended dry patterns. Scheduled seasonal shifts in precipitation could still alter the trajectory within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Обсяг
$35Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by early-onset drought, reduced Alpine snowmelt, and repeated heatwaves through summer 2026, have kept key gauges such as Kaub and Maxau well below historical averages. Official readings as of early September confirm ongoing restrictions on barge drafts and shipping capacity, with disruption odds remaining elevated for the month. The near-even split between September 15–30 and October 1–31 probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing of meaningful recovery, which hinges on sufficient rainfall or cooler conditions in the upper basin over the next several weeks. Traders appear to view a pre-September 15 rebound as unlikely given current hydrology, while the chance of no return before November captures tail risks from extended dry patterns. Scheduled seasonal shifts in precipitation could still alter the trajectory within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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