The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,398 deaths across seven provinces as of early September 2026, dominates trader sentiment on which countries will record cases this year. Rapid spread from the Ituri epicenter, fueled by population movement, conflict zones, health worker strikes, and incomplete contact tracing, has already produced cases in Uganda and prompted a WHO public health emergency declaration. Neighboring markets for South Sudan and the Republic of the Congo reflect elevated risk from porous borders and travel corridors, while distant options like the United States or China trade at lower implied probabilities due to stronger surveillance infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include expanded surveillance at points of entry, ongoing vaccine trials for frontline workers, and any new cross-border detections that could shift momentum before year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
$38,659 Обс.
South Sudan
67%
Rwanda
23%
Burundi
49%
United States
20%
Canada
23%
Kenya
24%
India
46%
Republic of the Congo
20%
Nigeria
50%
Ethiopia
52%
Somalia
36%
China
14%
$38,659 Обс.
South Sudan
67%
Rwanda
23%
Burundi
49%
United States
20%
Canada
23%
Kenya
24%
India
46%
Republic of the Congo
20%
Nigeria
50%
Ethiopia
52%
Somalia
36%
China
14%
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Ринок відкрито: May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,398 deaths across seven provinces as of early September 2026, dominates trader sentiment on which countries will record cases this year. Rapid spread from the Ituri epicenter, fueled by population movement, conflict zones, health worker strikes, and incomplete contact tracing, has already produced cases in Uganda and prompted a WHO public health emergency declaration. Neighboring markets for South Sudan and the Republic of the Congo reflect elevated risk from porous borders and travel corridors, while distant options like the United States or China trade at lower implied probabilities due to stronger surveillance infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include expanded surveillance at points of entry, ongoing vaccine trials for frontline workers, and any new cross-border detections that could shift momentum before year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено


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