The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,398 deaths across seven provinces as of early September 2026, dominates trader sentiment on which countries will record cases this year. Rapid spread from the Ituri epicenter, fueled by population movement, conflict zones, health worker strikes, and incomplete contact tracing, has already produced cases in Uganda and prompted a WHO public health emergency declaration. Neighboring markets for South Sudan and the Republic of the Congo reflect elevated risk from porous borders and travel corridors, while distant options like the United States or China trade at lower implied probabilities due to stronger surveillance infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include expanded surveillance at points of entry, ongoing vaccine trials for frontline workers, and any new cross-border detections that could shift momentum before year-end resolution.