Petr Yan’s recovery from minor back surgery that sidelined the bantamweight champion until summer 2026 has centered trader attention on a trilogy rematch with Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili, who lost the title to Yan via unanimous decision at UFC 323 in December 2025, has publicly confirmed ongoing talks with the UFC for the bout as early as August, citing both fighters’ willingness to run it back quickly. This history of two prior high-stakes meetings, combined with Dvalishvili’s recent comments on healing and readiness, explains his dominant 73.5% implied probability. Lower-priced options such as Sean O’Malley reflect past title-fight experience and unfulfilled rematch interest, while Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong sit further back as division contenders whose timing remains less certain given Yan’s extended absence.