Extensive releases of millions of pages of Epstein-related files under the 2025 Epstein Files Transparency Act through early 2026 have yielded no new U.S. indictments or arrests directly attributable to the disclosures. The Justice Department has assessed that the materials lack sufficient corroboration or fall outside statutes of limitations for extending criminal liability beyond Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, whose 2021 conviction and 20-year sentence predate the recent releases. Congressional oversight hearings and foreign inquiries have generated additional scrutiny and limited overseas actions, yet U.S. prosecutors report no viable basis for fresh charges that would produce incarceration by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. This record of stalled domestic proceedings underpins trader consensus favoring no qualifying jail time. Late-stage indictments tied to newly verified evidence or unexpected procedural breakthroughs remain the primary variables that could still shift the outcome.