Trader consensus on a "No" outcome at 95.7% reflects the absence of new U.S. indictments or convictions tied directly to files released under the 2025 Epstein Files Transparency Act, including the DOJ's January 2026 disclosure of millions of pages. Federal reviews have identified no prosecutable evidence extending criminal liability beyond prior cases, citing evidentiary gaps, statutes of limitations, and insufficient corroboration for additional charges. Congressional inquiries, such as the House Oversight Committee's contempt proceedings against Leon Black, have focused on testimony rather than disclosures triggering incarceration. With only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, the compressed timeline for investigation, charging, trial, and sentencing further reduces the likelihood of qualifying jail time. Late developments, such as unexpected corroboration enabling rapid federal or state action or international cases producing U.S. extraditions, remain the primary variables that could alter probabilities.