**US-China geopolitical tensions and regulatory risks, centered on CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese Military Companies list, are the main factors behind traders assigning an 81.5% probability that Apple will not purchase its DRAM chips in 2026.** Apple has explored sourcing LPDDR5X and related memory from CXMT to ease an AI-driven DRAM shortage that prompted recent product price hikes, and reports indicate the company is testing chips for China-market devices while lobbying for assurances against Entity List addition. However, bipartisan congressional opposition, including warnings of national security and supply-chain risks, has kept any deal politically fraught despite CXMT’s rapid capacity expansion to roughly 300,000 wafers per month and growing 10% global DRAM share. CXMT’s output remains largely committed through 2027. Key near-term catalysts include any Commerce Department Entity List decisions, Trump administration policy signals ahead of high-level China talks, or further qualification test results.