GameStop’s much smaller scale, with a roughly $12 billion market cap against eBay’s near $47 billion, combined with eBay’s May 2026 rejection of the $55-56 billion cash-and-stock bid as neither credible nor attractive, has anchored the 94.5% “No” implied probability. Financing concerns persist despite GameStop’s $9.4 billion cash position and TD Securities commitment letter, as Moody’s flagged credit-negative implications and eBay highlighted execution risks. GameStop’s stake rose to 9.8% by July, shifting focus toward activist investment rather than control, while recent reports indicate CEO Ryan Cohen may pursue a partnership instead. Warrant expirations in late October add funding pressure without a clear path to closing.