The market's near-certain "No" outcome reflects the simple reality that Pope Leo XIV's much-anticipated encyclical never appeared by the May 15 cutoff. Traders watched for the usual Vatican rollout signals—formal announcements at major church gatherings, coordinated media previews, or sudden social-media activity from official accounts—but none materialized, leaving the document's absence as the dominant factor. This mirrors how tightly scheduled cultural or institutional releases rarely launch without clear advance buildup, especially when historical precedent shows papal texts demand careful timing and fanfare. A last-minute surprise publication could still theoretically shift the result, though credible reports of any such development remain entirely absent.