Russian military commitments remain heavily concentrated in Ukraine as of mid-May 2026, with approximately 90 percent of combat power still engaged there according to senior U.S. officials. A May 14 State Department assessment highlighted that Moscow is expected to rebalance forces toward NATO’s eastern flank once fighting in Ukraine concludes, increasing hybrid pressure on the Baltic states in the interim. Dutch intelligence reported in April that Russia could reconstitute sufficient capabilities for limited regional action against NATO within a year after hostilities end, though no conventional movement toward alliance territory has occurred. NATO members continue joint training and deployments along the eastern border to address potential gray-zone or limited incursions, while diplomatic channels focus on deterrence and alliance cohesion.