Russia continues its full-scale war against Ukraine while conducting hybrid operations and airspace probes against NATO’s eastern flank, including a recent drone incursion over Latvia that prompted fighter scrambles. Kremlin statements in April 2026 accused Baltic states of militarizing borders and threatening Kaliningrad, consistent with long-running information operations aimed at justifying potential future moves. Analysts highlight Russia’s sustained gray-zone activities—sabotage, airspace violations, and influence efforts—as the primary near-term risk, given ongoing Ukrainian theater constraints on conventional forces. NATO responses, including troop rotations and Baltic defense planning, alongside U.S. policy signals, shape trader assessments of escalation timelines. Direct conventional invasion remains viewed as unlikely absent major shifts in Russian capacity or Western deterrence credibility.