Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the ongoing El Niño strengthening rapidly, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.9°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C. The September 10 advisory assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event through the 2026-27 winter, aligning closely with trader consensus at 94.2% implied odds for a super El Niño. Model ensembles project a peak in October-December, with 75% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. While atmospheric coupling and subsurface heat content reinforce this trajectory, modest forecast spread and the informal nature of the “super” threshold leave limited room for a slightly weaker outcome if intensification stalls.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Mar 31, 2027
94% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the ongoing El Niño strengthening rapidly, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.9°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C. The September 10 advisory assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event through the 2026-27 winter, aligning closely with trader consensus at 94.2% implied odds for a super El Niño. Model ensembles project a peak in October-December, with 75% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. While atmospheric coupling and subsurface heat content reinforce this trajectory, modest forecast spread and the informal nature of the “super” threshold leave limited room for a slightly weaker outcome if intensification stalls.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,248Дата завершення
Apr 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the ongoing El Niño strengthening rapidly, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.9°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C. The September 10 advisory assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event through the 2026-27 winter, aligning closely with trader consensus at 94.2% implied odds for a super El Niño. Model ensembles project a peak in October-December, with 75% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. While atmospheric coupling and subsurface heat content reinforce this trajectory, modest forecast spread and the informal nature of the “super” threshold leave limited room for a slightly weaker outcome if intensification stalls.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Обсяг
$9,248Дата завершення
Apr 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the ongoing El Niño strengthening rapidly, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.9°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +3.0°C. The September 10 advisory assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong event through the 2026-27 winter, aligning closely with trader consensus at 94.2% implied odds for a super El Niño. Model ensembles project a peak in October-December, with 75% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. While atmospheric coupling and subsurface heat content reinforce this trajectory, modest forecast spread and the informal nature of the “super” threshold leave limited room for a slightly weaker outcome if intensification stalls.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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