The overwhelming trader consensus against a Trump pardon for Tiger Woods by June 30 reflects the complete lack of federal legal exposure for the 15-time major champion and PGA Tour legend, combined with zero public signals from the administration on clemency. Woods has faced no recent federal charges or investigations that would place him on any typical pardon docket, and historical patterns show presidents reserve such actions for allies, high-profile allies, or cases with broad political upside—none of which apply here. Recent developments, including Woods’ focus on selective PGA appearances and private life, have produced no developments that would alter this baseline. While an unforeseen personal tie or sudden federal matter could theoretically emerge before the cutoff, the current absence of any such catalyst underpins the near-certain market positioning.