The state-level misdemeanor DUI charges facing 15-time major champion Tiger Woods in Florida remain the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus near 99 percent against a presidential pardon by June 30. Because executive clemency covers only federal offenses, the ongoing Martin County proceedings—including recent judicial approval for prosecutors to review Woods’ prescription records and his request for out-of-country treatment—fall squarely outside that authority. No federal investigation or conviction has surfaced, and the timeline to any hypothetical escalation leaves scant room for action before the cutoff. While an unforeseen federal indictment could theoretically alter the outlook, the current absence of such developments and the procedural realities of state cases continue to reinforce the market’s decisive lean.