Turkey enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a returning side after a 24-year absence, having secured qualification via UEFA playoffs under coach Vincenzo Montella. The squad blends experienced leaders such as Hakan Çalhanoğlu with high-potential attackers including Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, supported by solid recent form in friendlies and qualifiers. Traders price the team’s implied probability of advancing from Group D—featuring the United States, Paraguay, and Australia—while assigning the highest likelihood to an exit in the round of 32 or round of 16, reflecting the competitive balance of the expanded 48-team format and limited recent knockout-stage pedigree. Deeper runs remain possible given the generational talent core, yet the market consensus views the group stage or early knockout exit as the most probable outcomes based on current roster depth and historical patterns for similar European sides.