USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault segment is long enough to generate such energy release, with a hypothetical rupture needing to span thousands of kilometers across the planet. The record maximum remains the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5, consistent with the physical limits of subduction zone megathrusts and crustal mechanics. Ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS shows no indicators of unprecedented strain accumulation capable of exceeding this threshold before 2027. While model uncertainties or undiscovered fault linkages introduce theoretical edge cases, the absence of any supporting observational data sustains the near-certain market consensus on "No."
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
Có
1% khả năng
$813,455 KL.
$813,455 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
1% khả năng
$813,455 KL.
$813,455 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault segment is long enough to generate such energy release, with a hypothetical rupture needing to span thousands of kilometers across the planet. The record maximum remains the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5, consistent with the physical limits of subduction zone megathrusts and crustal mechanics. Ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS shows no indicators of unprecedented strain accumulation capable of exceeding this threshold before 2027. While model uncertainties or undiscovered fault linkages introduce theoretical edge cases, the absence of any supporting observational data sustains the near-certain market consensus on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$813,455Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault segment is long enough to generate such energy release, with a hypothetical rupture needing to span thousands of kilometers across the planet. The record maximum remains the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5, consistent with the physical limits of subduction zone megathrusts and crustal mechanics. Ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS shows no indicators of unprecedented strain accumulation capable of exceeding this threshold before 2027. While model uncertainties or undiscovered fault linkages introduce theoretical edge cases, the absence of any supporting observational data sustains the near-certain market consensus on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$813,455Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault segment is long enough to generate such energy release, with a hypothetical rupture needing to span thousands of kilometers across the planet. The record maximum remains the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5, consistent with the physical limits of subduction zone megathrusts and crustal mechanics. Ongoing global seismic monitoring by agencies like the USGS shows no indicators of unprecedented strain accumulation capable of exceeding this threshold before 2027. While model uncertainties or undiscovered fault linkages introduce theoretical edge cases, the absence of any supporting observational data sustains the near-certain market consensus on "No."
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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