South Africa leads Group D in the AFCON 2027 qualifiers with six points from two wins, including a 2-1 victory over Guinea and a 5-0 rout of Eritrea, giving Bafana Bafana a strong edge in goal difference and recent form. Guinea sits second on three points after defeating Kenya but trails significantly in the implied probabilities, reflecting their mixed start and tougher remaining schedule against South Africa. Kenya, already qualified as co-host, holds minimal relevance for the non-host qualification spot, while Eritrea’s heavy defeats and limited resources keep their chances negligible. The current trader consensus aligns with South Africa’s superior squad depth, attacking output, and early momentum in the home-and-away format, though Guinea retains a realistic path if they secure results in their November and March fixtures.