PAN maintains a consistent lead in recent party-preference surveys for the June 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial race, typically 15–18 points ahead of the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance, reflecting the state's long-term opposition tilt. Internal PAN polling shows Antonio Martín del Campo ahead of Leonardo Montañez Castro, yet the gap has narrowed, sustaining tight trader pricing between the two frontrunners. Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez leads Morena aspirants but trails both PAN figures in head-to-head scenarios. The October 2026 launch of the formal electoral process and upcoming candidate registrations could clarify the field, while undecided voters and alliance negotiations remain key variables that may shift implied probabilities before primary resolutions.