Traders assign a 77.5% probability that Alaska’s November 2026 Ballot Measure 2 will fail to repeal top-four ranked-choice voting and open primaries, largely reflecting the 2024 precedent in which an identical repeal initiative lost by just 737 votes (49.9%–50.1%). The measure, which would also restore partisan primaries and alter campaign disclosure rules, qualified for the ballot after signature collection but faces the same voter base that narrowly retained the system enacted in 2020. Recent reporting notes sustained public familiarity with RCV after multiple election cycles and the absence of new polling showing a decisive shift toward repeal. Scheduled November voting, combined with the narrow historical margin and competing ballot measures on campaign finance, continues to anchor market expectations around continuity rather than reversal of the current election framework.