Incumbent Juanma Moreno’s People’s Party has maintained a commanding lead in Andalusian regional polls ahead of today’s vote for the 109-seat parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats. Recent surveys project the PP securing 52–58 seats on 40–45% support, building on its 2022 absolute majority and stable governance record since ending decades of PSOE rule. The main opposition PSOE-A, led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly and faces its weakest projected showing, while Vox and smaller parties such as Por Andalucía remain far behind. Traders assign PP a 99.8% implied probability of winning because consistent polling aggregates and the absence of major late disruptions reinforce expectations of another majority outcome. A narrow loss of seats or unusually high opposition turnout could still alter the final seat distribution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPP 99.8%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$169,883 KL.
$169,883 KL.
May 17, 2026
PP
100%
PSOE-A
<1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.8%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$169,883 KL.
$169,883 KL.
May 17, 2026
PP
$60,445 KL.
100%
PSOE-A
$63,033 KL.
<1%
VOX
$36,234 KL.
<1%
PA
$5,745 KL.
<1%
AA
$4,426 KL.
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Juanma Moreno’s People’s Party has maintained a commanding lead in Andalusian regional polls ahead of today’s vote for the 109-seat parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats. Recent surveys project the PP securing 52–58 seats on 40–45% support, building on its 2022 absolute majority and stable governance record since ending decades of PSOE rule. The main opposition PSOE-A, led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly and faces its weakest projected showing, while Vox and smaller parties such as Por Andalucía remain far behind. Traders assign PP a 99.8% implied probability of winning because consistent polling aggregates and the absence of major late disruptions reinforce expectations of another majority outcome. A narrow loss of seats or unusually high opposition turnout could still alter the final seat distribution.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$169,883Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Juanma Moreno’s People’s Party has maintained a commanding lead in Andalusian regional polls ahead of today’s vote for the 109-seat parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats. Recent surveys project the PP securing 52–58 seats on 40–45% support, building on its 2022 absolute majority and stable governance record since ending decades of PSOE rule. The main opposition PSOE-A, led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly and faces its weakest projected showing, while Vox and smaller parties such as Por Andalucía remain far behind. Traders assign PP a 99.8% implied probability of winning because consistent polling aggregates and the absence of major late disruptions reinforce expectations of another majority outcome. A narrow loss of seats or unusually high opposition turnout could still alter the final seat distribution.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Khối lượng
$169,883Ngày kết thúc
May 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Juanma Moreno’s People’s Party has maintained a commanding lead in Andalusian regional polls ahead of today’s vote for the 109-seat parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats. Recent surveys project the PP securing 52–58 seats on 40–45% support, building on its 2022 absolute majority and stable governance record since ending decades of PSOE rule. The main opposition PSOE-A, led by María Jesús Montero, trails significantly and faces its weakest projected showing, while Vox and smaller parties such as Por Andalucía remain far behind. Traders assign PP a 99.8% implied probability of winning because consistent polling aggregates and the absence of major late disruptions reinforce expectations of another majority outcome. A narrow loss of seats or unusually high opposition turnout could still alter the final seat distribution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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