Persistent Russian hybrid activities, including drone incursions, airspace violations, and suspected sabotage on NATO's eastern flank, remain the main driver of trader positioning on another Article 4 invocation. The most recent formal consultations occurred in September 2025 after Polish and Estonian airspace incidents, with no member state requesting them since despite subsequent events such as the 2026 Leipzig drone episode and repeated Baltic provocations. Eastern allies like Lithuania have highlighted testing of alliance resolve below the Article 5 threshold, prompting enhanced air policing and diplomatic protests but no new North Atlantic Council sessions under Article 4. Market pricing reflects this pattern of incremental responses over formal consultations, with scheduled NATO military planning and potential further incidents in the coming months as the key variables that could alter probabilities before year-end.