Recent energy price surges tied to Middle East tensions have lifted UK CPI inflation to 3.3 percent in March 2026, prompting the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 percent on April 30 by an 8-1 vote while flagging upside risks to second-round wage and price pressures. Market-implied odds of 69.5 percent for at least one rate hike this year reflect the shift in forward curves and OIS pricing, which now embed roughly 40–60 basis points of tightening through year-end amid sticky core measures and a still-elevated inflation trajectory. The June 18 MPC meeting and April CPI release will test whether labor-market slack sufficiently offsets these risks or whether tighter financial conditions alone prove adequate, keeping trader focus squarely on incoming data.