Alexander Zverev holds the strongest implied probability at 27.5% as the top seed and recent French Open champion, yet the field remains wide open without Sinner and Alcaraz. Traders price in his hard-court Masters pedigree and recent form despite an early Montreal exit, while Taylor Fritz at 13.5% benefits from a Washington title and favorable draw positioning. Rafael Jodar, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Jakub Mensik cluster in the next tier due to strong recent results and stylistic suitability for fast Cincinnati hard courts. Novak Djokovic's experience and head-to-head edge add further depth, with the bunched lower probabilities reflecting high variance in a deep Masters 1000 where upsets and quarterfinal matchups frequently reshape outcomes.