The current 97.1% market-implied probability for no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the outbreak's regional concentration despite rapid early growth. The Bundibugyo virus epidemic, declared in May in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has produced over 7,400 confirmed cases and roughly 3,577 deaths across seven provinces as of mid-September, with a case fatality ratio near 48%. Transmission remains driven by direct contact with bodily fluids, and official data show no sustained community spread outside the DRC beyond limited imported cases in Uganda and France. While the World Health Organization has designated it a public health emergency of international concern and noted uneven progress—with declining incidence in Ituri but rising weekly cases in North Kivu—containment measures, contact tracing, and the virus's non-airborne nature have prevented the multi-continental escalation required for pandemic classification. Further international seeding or breakdown in response capacity could alter trajectories, though current surveillance indicates low global risk.