Turkish courts have consistently denied release requests for jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, criminal organization, and related charges, with ongoing mass trials featuring over 140 counts and potential sentences exceeding 2,000 years. As of mid-2026, İmamoğlu remains in pretrial detention at facilities including Marmara Prison amid active prosecutions, while some co-defendants have received conditional releases during recent hearings. No legislative changes, executive interventions, or shifts in the governing coalition have altered the judicial trajectory before the December 31, 2026 resolution window. Traders assign an 88% implied probability to continued custody, reflecting the entrenched legal process and absence of near-term catalysts that would typically prompt bail or acquittal in comparable cases.