A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear at his human trafficking trial in Tarija, where prosecutors accuse him of impregnating a 15-year-old girl during his presidency and seek 20 years in prison based on over 170 pieces of evidence. The trial remains suspended pending his capture or appearance. Despite the order, traders imply only 30% odds of arrest by May 31, reflecting Morales' longstanding evasion from Chapare—his coca-growing stronghold guarded by armed supporters who have blocked prior raids and now threaten national insurgency. Past roadblocks lasting 24 days and ongoing political tensions between Morales' faction and President Rodrigo Paz underscore operational challenges in the two-week window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$11,072 KL.
$11,072 KL.
May 31, 2026
$11,072 KL.
$11,072 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear at his human trafficking trial in Tarija, where prosecutors accuse him of impregnating a 15-year-old girl during his presidency and seek 20 years in prison based on over 170 pieces of evidence. The trial remains suspended pending his capture or appearance. Despite the order, traders imply only 30% odds of arrest by May 31, reflecting Morales' longstanding evasion from Chapare—his coca-growing stronghold guarded by armed supporters who have blocked prior raids and now threaten national insurgency. Past roadblocks lasting 24 days and ongoing political tensions between Morales' faction and President Rodrigo Paz underscore operational challenges in the two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,072Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear at his human trafficking trial in Tarija, where prosecutors accuse him of impregnating a 15-year-old girl during his presidency and seek 20 years in prison based on over 170 pieces of evidence. The trial remains suspended pending his capture or appearance. Despite the order, traders imply only 30% odds of arrest by May 31, reflecting Morales' longstanding evasion from Chapare—his coca-growing stronghold guarded by armed supporters who have blocked prior raids and now threaten national insurgency. Past roadblocks lasting 24 days and ongoing political tensions between Morales' faction and President Rodrigo Paz underscore operational challenges in the two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$11,072Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear at his human trafficking trial in Tarija, where prosecutors accuse him of impregnating a 15-year-old girl during his presidency and seek 20 years in prison based on over 170 pieces of evidence. The trial remains suspended pending his capture or appearance. Despite the order, traders imply only 30% odds of arrest by May 31, reflecting Morales' longstanding evasion from Chapare—his coca-growing stronghold guarded by armed supporters who have blocked prior raids and now threaten national insurgency. Past roadblocks lasting 24 days and ongoing political tensions between Morales' faction and President Rodrigo Paz underscore operational challenges in the two-week window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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