**Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July into alleged money laundering, currency evasion, and corruption tied to funding the “Dark Horse” film via banker Daniel Vorcaro, with details unsealed in mid-September.** No formal charges or arrest have occurred despite the probe’s publicity, and Brazilian electoral rules bar detention of registered candidates except in flagrante cases from September 19 through the October first-round vote. The inquiry’s procedural steps—further evidence gathering, prosecutor review, and court approval—typically require more time than the remaining window allows. Traders assign 95.8% probability to “No” because the investigation has not advanced rapidly enough for resolution by September 30, though a major evidentiary breakthrough or procedural acceleration could still shift the narrow remaining period.