Traders see the 90.5 percent implied probability of “No” for Gemini 4.0 by June 30, 2026, driven by Google’s current release cadence, which still centers on the Gemini 3.1 family launched in March and May 2026. The latest stable models, including Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.1 Flash-Lite, deliver frontier-class reasoning and speed but remain firmly in the 3.x series, consistent with Google’s pattern of incremental upgrades every few months rather than full generational leaps within weeks. Google I/O on May 19–20 offers the most immediate catalyst, where a new model is widely expected, yet credible previews point to a 3.2-level update or modest capability gains rather than a 4.0 redesign. A surprise major leap at the conference could shift sentiment, though technical benchmarks and internal development timelines make such an outcome unlikely before the market closes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$56,965 KL.
$56,965 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$56,965 KL.
$56,965 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 90.5 percent implied probability of “No” for Gemini 4.0 by June 30, 2026, driven by Google’s current release cadence, which still centers on the Gemini 3.1 family launched in March and May 2026. The latest stable models, including Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.1 Flash-Lite, deliver frontier-class reasoning and speed but remain firmly in the 3.x series, consistent with Google’s pattern of incremental upgrades every few months rather than full generational leaps within weeks. Google I/O on May 19–20 offers the most immediate catalyst, where a new model is widely expected, yet credible previews point to a 3.2-level update or modest capability gains rather than a 4.0 redesign. A surprise major leap at the conference could shift sentiment, though technical benchmarks and internal development timelines make such an outcome unlikely before the market closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Khối lượng
$56,965Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 90.5 percent implied probability of “No” for Gemini 4.0 by June 30, 2026, driven by Google’s current release cadence, which still centers on the Gemini 3.1 family launched in March and May 2026. The latest stable models, including Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.1 Flash-Lite, deliver frontier-class reasoning and speed but remain firmly in the 3.x series, consistent with Google’s pattern of incremental upgrades every few months rather than full generational leaps within weeks. Google I/O on May 19–20 offers the most immediate catalyst, where a new model is widely expected, yet credible previews point to a 3.2-level update or modest capability gains rather than a 4.0 redesign. A surprise major leap at the conference could shift sentiment, though technical benchmarks and internal development timelines make such an outcome unlikely before the market closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$56,965Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see the 90.5 percent implied probability of “No” for Gemini 4.0 by June 30, 2026, driven by Google’s current release cadence, which still centers on the Gemini 3.1 family launched in March and May 2026. The latest stable models, including Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.1 Flash-Lite, deliver frontier-class reasoning and speed but remain firmly in the 3.x series, consistent with Google’s pattern of incremental upgrades every few months rather than full generational leaps within weeks. Google I/O on May 19–20 offers the most immediate catalyst, where a new model is widely expected, yet credible previews point to a 3.2-level update or modest capability gains rather than a 4.0 redesign. A surprise major leap at the conference could shift sentiment, though technical benchmarks and internal development timelines make such an outcome unlikely before the market closes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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