The market-implied odds of 96.3% against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the rapid containment of the sole notable 2026 cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before ending in quarantine and contact tracing by July. Authoritative surveillance from the WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirms transmission requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory spread, with no sustained community chains or elevated global incidence beyond typical South American rodent-borne patterns. Seasonal cases in Argentina and Chile remain consistent with historical baselines and show no evidence of enhanced transmissibility or pandemic-scale growth. While climate-driven rodent habitat shifts could theoretically increase spillovers, current genomic and epidemiological data indicate negligible risk of the multiple adaptations needed for widespread human-to-human efficiency before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4% khả năng
$17,960,401 KL.
$17,960,401 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$17,960,401 KL.
$17,960,401 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market-implied odds of 96.3% against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the rapid containment of the sole notable 2026 cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before ending in quarantine and contact tracing by July. Authoritative surveillance from the WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirms transmission requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory spread, with no sustained community chains or elevated global incidence beyond typical South American rodent-borne patterns. Seasonal cases in Argentina and Chile remain consistent with historical baselines and show no evidence of enhanced transmissibility or pandemic-scale growth. While climate-driven rodent habitat shifts could theoretically increase spillovers, current genomic and epidemiological data indicate negligible risk of the multiple adaptations needed for widespread human-to-human efficiency before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Khối lượng
$17,960,401Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market-implied odds of 96.3% against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the rapid containment of the sole notable 2026 cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before ending in quarantine and contact tracing by July. Authoritative surveillance from the WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirms transmission requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory spread, with no sustained community chains or elevated global incidence beyond typical South American rodent-borne patterns. Seasonal cases in Argentina and Chile remain consistent with historical baselines and show no evidence of enhanced transmissibility or pandemic-scale growth. While climate-driven rodent habitat shifts could theoretically increase spillovers, current genomic and epidemiological data indicate negligible risk of the multiple adaptations needed for widespread human-to-human efficiency before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$17,960,401Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied odds of 96.3% against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the rapid containment of the sole notable 2026 cluster—an Andes virus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship that produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before ending in quarantine and contact tracing by July. Authoritative surveillance from the WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirms transmission requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient respiratory spread, with no sustained community chains or elevated global incidence beyond typical South American rodent-borne patterns. Seasonal cases in Argentina and Chile remain consistent with historical baselines and show no evidence of enhanced transmissibility or pandemic-scale growth. While climate-driven rodent habitat shifts could theoretically increase spillovers, current genomic and epidemiological data indicate negligible risk of the multiple adaptations needed for widespread human-to-human efficiency before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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