With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far a magnitude 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and multiple 7.5 events documented by USGS monitoring, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty over whether an 8.0+ quake will occur before year-end. Global great-earthquake rates average roughly one to two magnitude-8+ events annually, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Chile-Peru Trench, Aleutian Arc, and Indonesia. Key differentiators among the tightly matched ranges include remaining time window, ongoing aftershock sequences that could indicate stress transfer, and any new USGS or regional network data showing accelerated slip or foreshock activity. Historical analogs and current quiet periods in high-magnitude-prone segments support the even odds across thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
8.2 – 8.3 48%
8.6 – 8.7 48%
8.8 – 8.9 48%
7.9 or below 47%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 4, 2027
7.9 or below
47%
8.0 – 8.1
47%
8.2 – 8.3
48%
8.4 – 8.5
47%
8.6 – 8.7
48%
8.8 – 8.9
48%
9.0 or above
47%
8.2 – 8.3 48%
8.6 – 8.7 48%
8.8 – 8.9 48%
7.9 or below 47%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 4, 2027
7.9 or below
$0 KL.
47%
8.0 – 8.1
$0 KL.
47%
8.2 – 8.3
$0 KL.
48%
8.4 – 8.5
$0 KL.
47%
8.6 – 8.7
$0 KL.
48%
8.8 – 8.9
$0 KL.
48%
9.0 or above
$0 KL.
47%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far a magnitude 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and multiple 7.5 events documented by USGS monitoring, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty over whether an 8.0+ quake will occur before year-end. Global great-earthquake rates average roughly one to two magnitude-8+ events annually, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Chile-Peru Trench, Aleutian Arc, and Indonesia. Key differentiators among the tightly matched ranges include remaining time window, ongoing aftershock sequences that could indicate stress transfer, and any new USGS or regional network data showing accelerated slip or foreshock activity. Historical analogs and current quiet periods in high-magnitude-prone segments support the even odds across thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far a magnitude 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and multiple 7.5 events documented by USGS monitoring, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty over whether an 8.0+ quake will occur before year-end. Global great-earthquake rates average roughly one to two magnitude-8+ events annually, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Chile-Peru Trench, Aleutian Arc, and Indonesia. Key differentiators among the tightly matched ranges include remaining time window, ongoing aftershock sequences that could indicate stress transfer, and any new USGS or regional network data showing accelerated slip or foreshock activity. Historical analogs and current quiet periods in high-magnitude-prone segments support the even odds across thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far a magnitude 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and multiple 7.5 events documented by USGS monitoring, trader consensus reflects balanced uncertainty over whether an 8.0+ quake will occur before year-end. Global great-earthquake rates average roughly one to two magnitude-8+ events annually, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Chile-Peru Trench, Aleutian Arc, and Indonesia. Key differentiators among the tightly matched ranges include remaining time window, ongoing aftershock sequences that could indicate stress transfer, and any new USGS or regional network data showing accelerated slip or foreshock activity. Historical analogs and current quiet periods in high-magnitude-prone segments support the even odds across thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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