Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$481,360 KL.
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
10%
5.5%
8%
6.0%
7%
7.0%
5%
10.0%
3%
$481,360 KL.
5.0%
$123,066 KL.
10%
5.5%
$200,573 KL.
8%
6.0%
$75,518 KL.
7%
7.0%
$31,207 KL.
5%
10.0%
$50,996 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$481,360Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Khối lượng
$481,360Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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