**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone development throughout the 2026 season, producing a record-quiet start with only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of mid-September.** This marks the longest stretch without a hurricane in the satellite era (since 1966), surpassing the previous September 11 benchmark from 2002 and 2013. Persistent high wind shear and stable atmospheric patterns tied to one of the stronger El Niño events on record have prevented the intensification needed for hurricane status, keeping accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—far below the typical ~60 by this date. NOAA’s August outlook maintains a below-normal forecast of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall. With the climatological peak now passed and no systems expected in the immediate outlook, trader sentiment heavily favors 0 or 1–3 total hurricanes by season’s end on November 30, consistent with the historical rarity of completely hurricane-free seasons.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
1-3 62%
0 37%
4-6 3.5%
7+ <1%
$31,305 KL.
$31,305 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
37%
1-3
62%
4-6
3%
7+
<1%
1-3 62%
0 37%
4-6 3.5%
7+ <1%
$31,305 KL.
$31,305 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$17,015 KL.
37%
1-3
$5,372 KL.
62%
4-6
$6,694 KL.
3%
7+
$2,224 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone development throughout the 2026 season, producing a record-quiet start with only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of mid-September.**
This marks the longest stretch without a hurricane in the satellite era (since 1966), surpassing the previous September 11 benchmark from 2002 and 2013. Persistent high wind shear and stable atmospheric patterns tied to one of the stronger El Niño events on record have prevented the intensification needed for hurricane status, keeping accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—far below the typical ~60 by this date. NOAA’s August outlook maintains a below-normal forecast of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall.
With the climatological peak now passed and no systems expected in the immediate outlook, trader sentiment heavily favors 0 or 1–3 total hurricanes by season’s end on November 30, consistent with the historical rarity of completely hurricane-free seasons.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Thị trường mở: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,305Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone development throughout the 2026 season, producing a record-quiet start with only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of mid-September.**
This marks the longest stretch without a hurricane in the satellite era (since 1966), surpassing the previous September 11 benchmark from 2002 and 2013. Persistent high wind shear and stable atmospheric patterns tied to one of the stronger El Niño events on record have prevented the intensification needed for hurricane status, keeping accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—far below the typical ~60 by this date. NOAA’s August outlook maintains a below-normal forecast of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall.
With the climatological peak now passed and no systems expected in the immediate outlook, trader sentiment heavily favors 0 or 1–3 total hurricanes by season’s end on November 30, consistent with the historical rarity of completely hurricane-free seasons.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Khối lượng
$31,305Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone development throughout the 2026 season, producing a record-quiet start with only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of mid-September.** This marks the longest stretch without a hurricane in the satellite era (since 1966), surpassing the previous September 11 benchmark from 2002 and 2013. Persistent high wind shear and stable atmospheric patterns tied to one of the stronger El Niño events on record have prevented the intensification needed for hurricane status, keeping accumulated cyclone energy at just 4.4—far below the typical ~60 by this date. NOAA’s August outlook maintains a below-normal forecast of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, with a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall. With the climatological peak now passed and no systems expected in the immediate outlook, trader sentiment heavily favors 0 or 1–3 total hurricanes by season’s end on November 30, consistent with the historical rarity of completely hurricane-free seasons.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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