Strong El Niño conditions, with a very strong event (RONI ≥1.5–2.0°C) forecast through the peak months, have driven elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Main Development Region, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification. As of mid-September 2026, the basin has produced only five named storms—all tropical storms—and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 4% of the long-term average and the season already setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Official NOAA outlooks maintain a below-normal forecast of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, while late-season model guidance and historical analogs for strong El Niño years indicate limited remaining potential for additional intensification before November 30. Trader consensus on 0–3 total hurricanes reflects these persistent atmospheric conditions and the narrow window left for development.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.7%
7+ <1%
$31,879 KL.
$31,879 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
35%
1-3
63%
4-6
4%
7+
<1%
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.7%
7+ <1%
$31,879 KL.
$31,879 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$17,141 KL.
35%
1-3
$5,601 KL.
63%
4-6
$6,812 KL.
4%
7+
$2,324 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions, with a very strong event (RONI ≥1.5–2.0°C) forecast through the peak months, have driven elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Main Development Region, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification. As of mid-September 2026, the basin has produced only five named storms—all tropical storms—and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 4% of the long-term average and the season already setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Official NOAA outlooks maintain a below-normal forecast of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, while late-season model guidance and historical analogs for strong El Niño years indicate limited remaining potential for additional intensification before November 30. Trader consensus on 0–3 total hurricanes reflects these persistent atmospheric conditions and the narrow window left for development.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Thị trường mở: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,879Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions, with a very strong event (RONI ≥1.5–2.0°C) forecast through the peak months, have driven elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Main Development Region, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification. As of mid-September 2026, the basin has produced only five named storms—all tropical storms—and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 4% of the long-term average and the season already setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Official NOAA outlooks maintain a below-normal forecast of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, while late-season model guidance and historical analogs for strong El Niño years indicate limited remaining potential for additional intensification before November 30. Trader consensus on 0–3 total hurricanes reflects these persistent atmospheric conditions and the narrow window left for development.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Khối lượng
$31,879Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with a very strong event (RONI ≥1.5–2.0°C) forecast through the peak months, have driven elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Main Development Region, suppressing tropical cyclone organization and intensification. As of mid-September 2026, the basin has produced only five named storms—all tropical storms—and zero hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy at roughly 4% of the long-term average and the season already setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Official NOAA outlooks maintain a below-normal forecast of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, while late-season model guidance and historical analogs for strong El Niño years indicate limited remaining potential for additional intensification before November 30. Trader consensus on 0–3 total hurricanes reflects these persistent atmospheric conditions and the narrow window left for development.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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