Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu vụ phun trào núi lửa lớn (VEI ≥4) vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu vụ phun trào núi lửa lớn (VEI ≥4) vào năm 2026?
0 61%
1 35%
2 3.9%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 KL.
$1,079,004 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 3.9%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 KL.
$1,079,004 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,398 KL.
61%
1
$260,191 KL.
35%
2
$32,241 KL.
4%
3
$26,240 KL.
1%
4
$24,441 KL.
<1%
5+
$258,493 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,079,004Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,079,004Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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