With 1,135 confirmed U.S. tornadoes already recorded through mid-August 2026 according to preliminary NOAA Storm Prediction Center data—well above the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—the market heavily favors a final tally exceeding 1,250. An unusually active spring, featuring multiple Midwest outbreaks including a significant April event, combined with elevated reports from states like Illinois, has driven the surge. Summer activity remains supportive amid favorable instability and moisture patterns, though fall typically sees declining frequency. Remaining months would need sharply below-normal conditions to keep the total under 1,250, an outcome traders currently assign low probability given recent trends and climatological baselines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.1%
1150–1199 7.8%
1100–1149 3.6%
$81,752 KL.
$81,752 KL.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
8%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.1%
1150–1199 7.8%
1100–1149 3.6%
$81,752 KL.
$81,752 KL.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 KL.
1%
950–999
$3,618 KL.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 KL.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 KL.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 KL.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 KL.
8%
1200–1249
$15,917 KL.
8%
1250+
$18,543 KL.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With 1,135 confirmed U.S. tornadoes already recorded through mid-August 2026 according to preliminary NOAA Storm Prediction Center data—well above the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—the market heavily favors a final tally exceeding 1,250. An unusually active spring, featuring multiple Midwest outbreaks including a significant April event, combined with elevated reports from states like Illinois, has driven the surge. Summer activity remains supportive amid favorable instability and moisture patterns, though fall typically sees declining frequency. Remaining months would need sharply below-normal conditions to keep the total under 1,250, an outcome traders currently assign low probability given recent trends and climatological baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Khối lượng
$81,752Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With 1,135 confirmed U.S. tornadoes already recorded through mid-August 2026 according to preliminary NOAA Storm Prediction Center data—well above the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—the market heavily favors a final tally exceeding 1,250. An unusually active spring, featuring multiple Midwest outbreaks including a significant April event, combined with elevated reports from states like Illinois, has driven the surge. Summer activity remains supportive amid favorable instability and moisture patterns, though fall typically sees declining frequency. Remaining months would need sharply below-normal conditions to keep the total under 1,250, an outcome traders currently assign low probability given recent trends and climatological baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$81,752Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With 1,135 confirmed U.S. tornadoes already recorded through mid-August 2026 according to preliminary NOAA Storm Prediction Center data—well above the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually—the market heavily favors a final tally exceeding 1,250. An unusually active spring, featuring multiple Midwest outbreaks including a significant April event, combined with elevated reports from states like Illinois, has driven the surge. Summer activity remains supportive amid favorable instability and moisture patterns, though fall typically sees declining frequency. Remaining months would need sharply below-normal conditions to keep the total under 1,250, an outcome traders currently assign low probability given recent trends and climatological baselines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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